Sunday, August 16, 2009

fundamental analysis

Check phase 1 and phase 2 scores.

On phase 1 you need at least 5 green arrows:

Volume Ratio 5/30 Day

P/E Ratio

P/E Relative Ratio

Proj EPS 1M Chg CFY

EPS Growth 5 Yr

Company Growth Ratio

Acc. Dist Current


Cash Flow Growth 5 Yr

Debt/Equity Ratio

Insider Trading

EPS Rank

Price Rank

Group Rank




On Phase 2:
Divided between:

Financials
&
Earnings Estimates



Price Pattern- Best to have one year and 5 years move up.

Volatility- Less is better

Estimates-

Wallstreet estimate: Numbers should increase with the time.
Next 5 years >20%
Mean change should be positive

Company vs. Industry growth rates:



Company numbers should be higher than industry numbers. Each time it is the opposite a point should be substracted from the grade.


Historical suprises- Always to have a better actual than the estimate.

News- only positive.. of course.. :)


Analyst Recommendations and Revisions-
1-1.5 A
1.6-2.5 B
2.6-3.5 C
3.6 + F


Financials

Return on Equity (ROE):
18+ A
15 - 17.99 B
12 - 14.99 C
9 - 11.99 D
Bellow 9 F

Growth Rates
How quickly EPS has grown compared to sales.
We want (for 1 year):
sales growth >25%
EPS growth > 25%
EPS growing faster than sales

Revenue
We want to see increasing revenues. On the last two years we should compare quarters if we don't have complete date, but earlier years it is enough to compare yearly totals.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)
We should see an increase with the time.

Summery for phase 2 we need:
F/E > 3.25
Price Pattern > 2.25
Volatility 4 (conservative) 2 aggressive
News Pass


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